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China's crude oil import dependency closed accelerator (CNCIN)

发布日期2014-03-08   来源:中润集团

    Rapidly rising crude oil has always been the goal of the Chinese government to control external dependency. In 2009 China's crude oil import dependency is far above 50% for the first time. It took just two years of time, and crude oil import dependence has climbed from 55.7% to 5.7% by two years. However, since 2012, external dependency got to curb rapid ascent. To 2013, China's crude oil rose to 57.5% external dependency ratio, which rose only 1.8% two years ago.

     China's economic development became slow, making the rush to crude oil import growth rate of the accelerator closed. Since 2012, when China GDP from double-digit fall to 7.8% and 7.7% range, in two years, average growth rate of China's crude oil imports is only 4.5% which is far less than 14% of the first 3 years during the  high growth period. The customs data show that in 2013, China's crude oil imports for the whole year is 282 million tons, which is an increase of 4.1% in nearly 10 years, and crude oil imports growth is in minimum of one year.

     Although, in January 2014, China's crude imports rebounded to 28 million tons, which increased about 12% and is higher about 17% than the average monthly imports in 2013. But that doesn't mean that the future of China's crude oil import will again be on the run accelerator. The reason of oil imports increased significantly in January 2014, not for the result of the ascension of the crude oil processing capacity, but because there are plenty of crude oil into inventory. After the data analysis, it shows that the month is about more than 600 ten thousand tons of crude oil inventories. Among them, a large number of expensive entered into the strategic crude oil reserve.

     Look from the trend, in recent years, China's strategic crude oil reserve is stable and orderly, and the increase number of annual reserves is generally stable within a constant number. Needless to say, stable and orderly and gradually increase the strategic reserves, whether make a strategic reserve in our country implement as planned, or a stable international market expectations have benefits. Compare each monthly, in January 2014, during the crude oil storage size is larger, but, looked from the rule of crude oil reserves growth, this is only a special case.

     In the next two years, if China's GDP remains in 7. 8%, the growth rate of China's imports of crude oil will likely to remain within 5% to 6%, and by the end of 2015, China's crude oil foreign dependence may slightly increase to 59%. In the twelfth five-year plan energy development planning, the state council put forward that the target of controlling external dependency of crude oil is 61%.

    However, it's not worth glad. Because of slowing growth of China's oil dependency is not primarily due to the result of energy use efficiency, it relies on China's economic growth rate decline. The problem is, once the economic recovery, the rapid growth of economy unavoidably run again on the oil imports rising accelerator.